An Agent Operationalization Approach for Context Specific Agent-Based Modeling

The potential of agent-based modeling (ABM) has been demonstrated in various research fields. However, three major concerns limit the full exploitation of ABM; (i) agents are too simple and behave unrealistically without any empirical basis, (ii) \'proof of concept\' applications are too theoretical and (iii) too much value placed on operational validity instead of conceptual validity. This paper presents an operationalization approach to determine the key system agents, their interaction, decision-making and behavior for context specific ABM, thus addressing the above-mentioned shortcomings. The approach is embedded in the framework of Giddens\' structuration theory and the structural agent analysis (SAA). The agents\' individual decision-making (i.e. reflected decisions) is operationalized by adapting the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). The approach is supported by empirical system knowledge, allowing us to test empirically the presumed decision-making and behavioral assumptions. The output is an array of sample agents with realistic (i.e. empirically quantified) decision-making and behavior. Results from a Swiss mineral construction material case study illustrate the information which can be derived by applying the proposed approach and demonstrate its practicability for context specific agent-based model development.Agent Operationalization, Decision-Making, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Agent-Based Modeling, Conceptual Validation

Generic bottom-up building-energy models for developing regional energy transition scenarios

Energy demand from buildings has the largest single share of the global final energy demand, but offers massive energy saving potentials through state-of-the-art technologies and behavioural changes. However, the required speed of technology adoption and behavioural changes to achieve such savings are largely uncertain and embedded in complex socio-technical system. Successful examples of achieving such systemic transition in the energy system are mostly found on the regional scale. Therefore a transition from the existing conventional centralized and mainly fossil fuelbased energy infrastructure towards a decentralized and renewable-based energy infrastructure is required. This research presents a generic bottom-up building-energy model for developing regional energy scenarios. Besides the development of regional scenarios, this model allows for analysing various detailed aspects of buildings' energy demand, such as retrofitting behaviour, technology adoption, and occupancy behaviour with agent-based modelling extensions

Comparative LCA of recycled and conventional concrete for structural applications

Purpose: Construction and demolition (C&D) waste recycling has been considered to be a valuable option not only for minimising C&D waste streams to landfills but also for mitigating primary mineral resource depletion. However, the potentially higher cement demand due to the larger surface of the coarse recycled aggregates challenges the environmental benefits of recycling concrete. Furthermore, it is unclear how the environmental impacts depend on concrete mixture, cement type, aggregates composition and transport distances. Methods: We therefore analysed the life cycle impacts of 12 recycled concrete (RC) mixtures with two different cement types and compared it with corresponding conventional concretes (CC) for three structural applications. The RC mixtures were selected according to laws, standards and construction practice in Switzerland. We compared the environmental impacts of ready-for-use concrete on the construction site, assuming equal lifetimes for recycled and conventional concrete in a full life cycle assessment. System expansion and substitution are considered to achieve the same functionality for all systems. Results and discussion: The results show clear (∼30%) environmental benefits for all RC options at endpoint level (ecoindicator 99 and ecological scarcity). The difference is mainly due to the avoided burdens associated to reinforcing steel recycling and avoided disposal of C&D waste. Regarding global warming potential (GWP), the results are more balanced and primarily depend on the additional amount of cement needed for RC. Above 22 to 40kg additional cement per cubic metre of concrete, RC exhibits a GWP comparable to CC. Additional transport distances above 15km for the RC options do result in environmental impacts higher than those for CC. Conclusions: In summary, the current market mixtures of recycled concrete in Switzerland show significant environmental benefits compared to conventional concrete and cause similar GWP, if additional cement and transport for RC are limite

Scaling up local energy infrastructure; An agent-based model of the emergence of district heating networks

The potential contribution of local energy infrastructure – such as heat networks – to the transition to a low carbon economy is increasingly recognised in international, national and municipal policy. Creating the policy environment to foster the scaling up of local energy infrastructure is, however, still challenging; despite national policy action and local authority interest the growth of heat networks in UK cities remains slow. Technoeconomic energy system models commonly used to inform policy are not designed to address institutional and governance barriers. We present an agent-based model of heat network development in UK cities in which policy interventions aimed at the institutional and governance barriers faced by diverse actors can be explored. Three types of project instigators are included – municipal, commercial and community – which have distinct decision heuristics and capabilities and follow a multi-stage development process. Scenarios of policy interventions developed in a companion modelling approach indicate that the effect of interventions differs between actors depending on their capabilities. Successful interventions account for the specific motivations and capabilities of different actors, provide a portfolio of support along the development process and recognise the important strategic role of local authorities in supporting low carbon energy infrastructure

End-user centred infrastructure operation: Towards integrated end-use service delivery

Reliable provision of water, energy and transportation, all supplied through infrastructure, is necessary for the most basic human and economic development to occur. Such development however, is not enabled by specific end-use products (e.g. litres of water, kWh of electricity, litres of diesel and petrol), or by infrastructure itself (i.e. the systems of energy, transport, digital information, water, waste and flood protection assets), but rather through the infrastructure end-use services (e.g. hygiene, thermal comfort, communication, or accessibility). The present form of infrastructure operation consists of supply systems provisioning unconstrained demand of end-use products, with larger consumption volumes corresponding to higher economic revenue. Providing infrastructure capacity to meet unmanaged growing demand is ultimately unsustainable, both in environmental and economic terms. Past research has focused on physical infrastructure assets on the one hand, and sustainable consumption and production on the other, often neglecting infrastructure end-use services. An important priority for sustainable infrastructure operation is therefore to analyse the infrastructure end-use service demands, and the variety of end-users’ wants and behaviours. This paper outlines the key aspects of an end-user and service-centred approach to infrastructure operation. It starts with an overview of relevant research areas and literature. It then describes the infrastructure end-use services provided by different infrastructure streams quantitatively, with the UK domestic sector as an illustration. Subsequently, insights into infrastructure integration at the end-user level are presented. Finally, the infrastructure end-use service perspective is described as a holistic framework for intervention: understanding technological changes in context, acting directly on end-use demand, and including social implications of service-based solutions

Accelerating the diffusion of energy-efficient building technologies with policies - The case of Switzerland

The diffusion of energy-efficient building technologies is crucial for decarbonizing the building sector. However, many of these technologies diffuse slowly despite being economically superior compared to carbon-intensive alternatives. This study analyzes how combinations of different policies can effectively close this energy-efficiency gap. Applying an agent-based model that represents construction planning in Switzerland between 1995-2015, we ex-post evaluate the impact of four policies – financial incentives, mandatory building energy codes, voluntary energy labels, information campaigns – on the diffusion of three technologies – heat pumps, comfort ventilation, low-e glazing. Results indicate type and timing of policy combinations as key for successful technology diffusion.ISSN:1742-6588ISSN:1742-659

The impact of plug-in behavior on the spatial–temporal flexibility of electric vehicle charging load

While electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to support decarbonizing transport, EVs can challenge the electricity system. Investigating the EV charging load and its flexibility, e.g., by shifting load, is therefore crucial to ensure a secure and sustainable energy system. We develop an agent-based model to investigate how different plug-in behaviors can affect (future) EV charging load profiles and their spatial–temporal flexibility. We contribute to extant literature by (1) revealing the effect of diverse plug-in behaviors on EV load profiles, particularly the flexibility potential resulting from different plug-in behaviors; (2) presenting the (future) charging load in different spatial structures, i.e. urban, rural, or suburban, and home, work, or public charging locations; and (3) demonstrating the effect of detailed driving profiles in high spatial and temporal resolution. We implement three future scenarios regarding EV and charging infrastructure diffusion and technology developments. We find that the impact of potential changes in plug-in behavior on EV charging load would be highest for urban areas and increases as charging infrastructure becomes more spatially diversified. Decision-makers in policy and industry can use these insights to evaluate the impact of EV charging on distribution grids and design incentives to leverage the flexibility potential of EVs.ISSN:2210-670

Can electricity pricing leverage electric vehicles and battery storage to integrate high shares of solar photovoltaics?

Leveraging electric vehicles with controlled charging has the potential to advance the integration of high shares of residential solar photovoltaics. Time-varying electricity pricing is a promising tool to control EV charging indirectly through price signals, but also affects the diffusion and usage of other residential technologies. In this article, we develop an agent-based model to simulate California’s residential market for electric-vehicle charging, and the adoption of solar photovoltaics and battery storage, between 2005 and 2030. We show that time-of-use and hourly rates have a substantial impact on the further diffusion and integration of these technologies. Time-of-use rates trigger the adoption of battery storage, but over-coordinate electric-vehicle charging. Hourly rates, in contrast, slow down the diffusion of solar photovoltaics temporarily, but concentrate electric-vehicle charging around midday, thereby reducing the need for fast-ramping generation capacity and carbon emissions. Using real-world driving patterns, we show that 80% of EVs shift charging to midday hours with home charging alone. However, EVs only reduce the need for ramping capacity and thus advance PV integration, when users also have access to workplace and public charging. Further, we demonstrate that electric vehicles mitigate the increase in retail electricity prices, and thus counteract the utility death spiral. Our results indicate that controlling EV charging with electricity pricing decreases utility costs but increase retail electricity prices.ISSN:0306-2619ISSN:1872-911

Energy transition and technical energy regulations in the building sector

Energy demand from buildings accounts for about 31% of global final energy demand and 23% of global energy-related carbon emissions. Technical energy regulations or building energy codes - policies that set minimum requirements for energy in buildings – have proven effective and efficient in decarbonizing the building sector. However, despite their long history and success, policymakers increasingly recognise that TERs in their current design have reached a point of diminishing returns. This study evaluates five countries with innovative building energy codes – Denmark, France, England, Switzerland, and Sweden – through reviewing legal documents and conducting expert interviews with researchers, practitioners, and regulators. Our results highlight the implementation challenges of innovative building energy codes and we provide learnings in form of six design principles.ISSN:1755131

Mind the goal: Trade-offs between flexibility goals for controlled electric vehicle charging strategies

Electrification is one of the main decarbonization strategies for transportation. While uncontrolled electric vehicle (EV) charging can challenge the electricity system, controlled EV charging can offer flexibility. Using an agent-based model, we simulate combinations of two elements of EV charging, plug-in behaviors and controlled-charging processes, and measure flexibility goals with four metrics: total load shift, increase in midday load, peak reduction, and flatness of the load curve. We reveal trade-offs between these flexibility goals, which indicate that the most beneficial combinations are specific to spatial areas and their flexibility goals. Furthermore, we find that controlled-charging processes show higher impact on the flexibility metrics than plug-in behaviors, particularly with high EV and charging-station diffusion, but less so in rural areas. Incentivizing beneficial combinations can increase the flexibility potential of EV charging and potentially avoid grid reinforcements.ISSN:2589-004